| 引用本文: | 蒋金良, 林广明.基于ARIMA模型的自动站风速预测[J].控制理论与应用,2008,25(2):374~376.[点击复制] |
| JIANG Jin-liang, LIN Guang-ming.Automatic station wind speed forecasting based on ARIMA model[J].Control Theory and Technology,2008,25(2):374~376.[点击复制] |
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| 基于ARIMA模型的自动站风速预测 |
| Automatic station wind speed forecasting based on ARIMA model |
| 摘要点击 1998 全文点击 1715 投稿时间：2007-09-25 修订日期：2008-01-10 |
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| DOI编号 |
| 2008,25(2):374-376 |
| 中文关键词 ARIMA模型 风速 预测 |
| 英文关键词 ARIMA model wind speed forecast |
| 基金项目 国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(60534040). |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 对风速预测进行了研究, 提出了基于ARIMA模型的风速预测模型, 为了检验ARIMA模型的有效性, 综合考虑可决系数和AIC(最小信息量)准则, 利用历史150天数据进行ARIMA建模, 对某自动站后一天的风速进行预测, 经过多次仿真计算, 结果表明该方法是有效的. |
| 英文摘要 |
| A wind speed forecasting model based on ARIMA(autoregressive integrated moving average) model is proposed
in this paper. In order to test the effectiveness of the ARIMA model, the identified coefficient and AIC(Akaike information criterion) criterion are comprehensively dealt with to establish the ARIMA model. By using the historic data of the last 150 days, this model forecasts the next one day’s wind speed in one automatic station. The validity of the proposed method is verified by the results of the simulation. |
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