引用本文:刘鹏,孙子文.随机混合系统模拟物理状态的工业信息物理系统动态风险评估[J].控制理论与应用,2025,42(9):1766~1774.[点击复制]
LIU Peng,SUN Zi-wen.Dynamic risk assessment of industrial cyber-physical systems with the simulation of the physical state by stochastic hybrid system state[J].Control Theory & Applications,2025,42(9):1766~1774.[点击复制]
随机混合系统模拟物理状态的工业信息物理系统动态风险评估
Dynamic risk assessment of industrial cyber-physical systems with the simulation of the physical state by stochastic hybrid system state
摘要点击 3128  全文点击 149  投稿时间：2023-03-03  修订日期：2025-03-07
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DOI编号  10.7641/CTA.2024.30101
  2025,42(9):1766-1774
中文关键词  工业信息物理系统  信息域到物理域动态风险  拓展贝叶斯攻击图  随机混合系统  灰色关联度分析
英文关键词  industrial cyber-physical systems  cyber-to-physical dynamic risk  extended Bayesian attack graph  s tochastic hybrid system  grey relation analysis
基金项目  国家自然科学基金项目(61373126),中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(JUSRP51510),江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20131107)资助.
作者单位E-mail
刘鹏 江南大学物联网工程学院 6211905028@stu.jiangnan.edu.cn 
孙子文* 物联网技术应用教育部工程研究中心  
中文摘要
      作为工业4.0的核心要素,工业信息物理系统(ICPS)被广泛运用于配水、医疗、电网等基础领域.同时,针对 ICPS的网络攻击也日益增多.为评估网络攻击给ICPS造成的风险,针对网络攻击下物理状态会发生不确定演变的 情况,本文给出一种从信息域到物理域的动态风险评估模型.首先,该模型使用拓展贝叶斯攻击图计算物理设施被 网络攻击破坏的概率;然后,依据攻击成功概率与传感器的测量新息,采用随机混合系统模拟系统物理状态演变.最 后, 该模型使用灰色关联度分析法实现物理状态变化到系统风险值的转化,实现对系统风险的动态评估.使用智能 配水系统作为仿真对象,模拟结果验证了所提出模型的有效性.
英文摘要
      As the core element of Industry 4.0, industrial cyber-physical systems (ICPS) are widely used in basic fields such as water distribution, medical care, and power grids. Meanwhile, cyber attacks against ICPS are also increasing. In order to evaluate the risk posed by cyber attacks to ICPS, this paper has proposed a cyber-to-physical domain dynamic risk evalutaion model. The proposed model focuses on the uncertain evolvement of the physical state under cyber attacks. Firstly, the proposed model uses extended Bayesian attack graphs to calculate physical facilities’ distruction probabilities due to cyber attacks. Then, based on the probability of attack success and the sensor measurement innovation, stochastic hybrid system is used to simulate the evolution of the physical state of the system. Finally, the proposed model uses grey relation analysis to realize the transformation of physical state change to system risk value, and achieve the dynamic assessment of system risk. Simulation results using intelligent water distribution system as the simulation object verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.